50 States, 1 Goal: Recidivism Rate Trends Over the Past Decade

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States spend roughly $80 billion annually on corrections. Understanding how many people released from prison return within 3 years is one important way to assess whether that investment is working and where the system is falling short. Yet comprehensive 50-state recidivism data has long been severely limited.

In 2024, the CSG Justice Center compiled publicly available state-by-state recidivism data covering release cohorts from 2008 through 2018–2019 (where available). Since then, 40 states have published more recent recidivism data on people released, giving us a more current picture of state-level recidivism trends. However, 11 states have not published recidivism data for cohorts released after 2019, making this data stale even in the states where it was just released. In 4 of those states (Hawaii, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia), the most recent available data is for people released in 2016.

This brief highlights key findings based on the latest available data and reexamines whether recidivism rates have changed meaningfully over the past decade.

2. Progress to reduce recidivism is real but uneven, and gaps remain.

Eight states recorded a 30% or greater reduction in reincarceration rates over the past 10 years (California, New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, and Missouri), demonstrating that meaningful progress is possible across diverse policy environments.

But a handful of states (including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota) recorded higher reincarceration rates than they did 10 years ago.

And for 11 states, the most recent recidivism data available is outdated—ending with release cohorts from 2016, 2018, or 2019—limiting accountability and our ability to assess whether progress is holding:

• 2016: Hawaii, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia
• 2018: Alabama
• 2019: Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Oklahoma

Appendix

Recidivism Measures

CSG Justice Center staff collected state-level recidivism data by reviewing each state department of corrections (DOC) website. Data were drawn from publicly available dashboards, annual reports, and special recidivism reports. In some states, analyses were produced by the DOC; in others, they were conducted by external researchers or other government agencies.

There is no single standardized definition of recidivism across states. Definitions vary by (1) the population included in the analysis, (2) the follow-up period, and (3) the event counted as recidivism. Many states report multiple measures.

The most common approach, used by 33 states, follows an annual prison release cohort (all individuals released from state prison in a given year) for 3 years after release and defines recidivism as reincarceration in state prison for any reason during that period. Because this measure was the most widely available, we used it as our primary definition. When a state did not report this measure, we selected the metric that most closely aligned with it. Some states vary in the populations included; the follow-up period (for example, two years rather than three); or the event measured, such as rearrest, reconviction, or reincarceration for a new crime only. All state-specific definitions and deviations are documented in the appendix table below. Because states report data for different release cohorts and years, results reflect the most recent data available for each state rather than a single uniform cohort across states. To estimate national trends, we calculated weighted national average recidivism rates for 2 time points: each state’s most recent reported rate and the rate reported approximately 10 years earlier. State rates were weighted by the size of the corresponding prison release cohort used to calculate the recidivism measure.

Limitations

Differences in how states define and measure recidivism limit the precision of cross-state comparisons. Despite these variations, the data provide a useful indicator of overall recidivism trends across states.